New Democrat Update - February 2010
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s formidable strengths make him the favorite to win the race to be Colorado’s next governor. His excellent record of smart leadership and a thoughtful public policy agenda have generated deep and broad support in the Denver metropolitan area and is sure to have the same effect across the state.
Without a positive agenda to run on, Republicans are already showing signs of desperation in their attempts to defeat him. However, Hickenlooper’s impressive accomplishments and political skills will make their attacks sound just as silly as the ones sent his way some seven years ago.
The New Democrat Update published an analysis (below, edited for space), immediately after his first - and successful - run for elected office in June of 2003. What it says about him and the Colorado electorate is even more true today.
WHY HICKENLOOPER WON
John Hickenlooper’s huge victory says a lot about state and local politics in Colorado. Increasingly, successful candidates must have a clear, compelling and understandable mainstream message that addresses voters’ broad concerns and communicates a strong unifying sense of public purpose.
He and his campaign set the terms of the debate and defined the meta-theme of the election - “business as usual will not cut it.” The candidate, who determines what an election is all about, always wins it.
Hickenlooper’s campaign embraced traditional progressive values and advanced them in ways that address changing times, focusing on genuine and relevant reform. Articulated through visionary governing themes, his fresh, innovative and practical ideas championed the values and broad interests of Denverites.
His consistent “New Democrat” messages were on target with voter priorities and appealed across constituencies - reviving a sluggish economy, injecting entrepreneurialism into government and solving the city’s significant budgetary problems. He emphasized spending taxpayer money wisely and expanding opportunity through private-sector growth, along with respect and tolerance for everyone and a government that empowers people, not one that takes care of them.
That winning message did not happen by accident. Before the campaign started, Hickenlooper comprehensively and methodically assessed the big challenges facing the city, visited with mayors across the nation to identify cutting-edge ideas and developed a set of innovative and practical Denver-specific solutions.
From day one, the LoDo restaurateur seemed to “know thyself,” his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate (especially when compared to his opponents), and what it would take to win. Not intimidated by the pundits who called him a long-shot, he insisted that his message and ideas would drive everything else, including fund-raising, recruiting volunteers and generating political support. He distilled that agenda into engaging television ads that used clever and understandable metaphors to explain his candidacy.
Thorough preparation, combined with “knowing thyself,” fueled his ability to communicate consistent messages, while being easygoing and “comfortable in his own skin.” The critical up-front work allowed him, from start to finish, to stay positive, set the terms of the debate, define the election and get an early big lead.
Well before the May election, Hickenlooper had convinced voters that “business as usual” approaches would not solve Denver’s pressing problems. His background reinforced the credibility of his message. Voters liked his track record as a businessman who created jobs and met payrolls, and empathized with his experience losing his job in the 1980s and bouncing back. His work for nonprofit groups demonstrated a commitment to the community. He defined himself by clearly articulating what he stood for, not merely by the organizations or groups he stood with.
He recognized that Denver politics has changed dramatically in just the last two or three decades. Populism no longer resonates with an electorate that is now more educated, more affluent, more middle class, more centrist, more independent, more invested in the stock market and less unionized.
Hickenlooper prevailed because he realized that majorities are built around values and ideas, not narrow appeals to special-interest groups. Tellingly, he helped keep his message consistent by refusing offers from independent organizations who try to help their endorsed candidates. These groups usually emphasize a narrow set of issues they consider important, often confusing their favorite candidate’s message.
Democrats around the state should take Hickenlooper’s lead and realize that today’s politics requires understanding the everyday problems facing people, articulating a clear, forward-looking vision and advocating innovative solutions, rooted in mainstream values. Ordinary voters do not see the debate in terms of liberal vs. conservative, but as a battle between those clinging to the familiar past and others willing to embrace an uncertain future with new ideas. They are seeking a new kind of public activism that equips citizens, families, and communities with the tools they need to solve their own problems.
Winning the battle of ideas must become the central focus. Voters want fiscally responsible solutions and progress on those issues that affect them on a daily basis.
If other Democrats learn the right lessons from the extraordinarily successful campaign of Denver’s new Mayor-Elect, better days are sure to be ahead for our party.
JOBS, JOBS AND MORE JOBS
Too many Coloradans either cannot find gainful employment or are worried about losing their current job. The nation has experienced its worst downturn since the Great Depression, with over 15 million people unemployed, one-third of whom have been jobless for over six months. In Colorado alone, about 159,900 people are unemployed. The lack of full-time jobs is especially severe: another nine million Americans are working part-time because they cannot find the full-time jobs they want and need.
Small businesses account for as much as two-thirds of all net new job growth. They are also the lifeblood of the rural economy - nine out of ten businesses in rural America are small companies. However, in these tough times, business start-ups fell 14% from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, and the 187,000 businesses launched in that quarter were the fewest since 1995.
The nonpartisan Kauffman Foundation asked people how they felt about the economy - a majority believe it is on the wrong track. If that feeling continues, a self-fulfilling prophecy will continue to take hold, depressing consumer confidence and spending, sending the economy into another recession.
The private sector is the primary engine of economic growth and new jobs. However, the federal government can help with initiatives that promote entrepreneurship and boost the formation of new business. More dramatic action is needed from Washington.
For example, the tax code should include a much simpler standard residential office deduction for home-based entrepreneurs equal to the lesser of $2,500 or the annual gross income from the taxpayer's business. Doubling the deduction for business startup costs from $5,000 to $10,000 will also be a big help.
Too often, new regulations are layered on top of others that no longer have any economic or social benefit. A new Regulatory Sunset Commission could review existing federal rules and regulations affecting entrepreneurs and, where possible, recommend the replacement of bureaucratically-controlled policies with market-oriented measures that are at least as effective but less costly. That will help root out unnecessary red tape that too often gets in the way of small business formation and job creation.
An economic downturn of this magnitude will need immediate and continual attention for the foreseeable future. The sooner President Barack Obama and Congress can act, the better.