New Democrat Update

WHY HICKENLOOPER WON SO DECISIVELY

John Hickenlooper’s huge victory says a lot about state and local politics in Colorado. Increasingly, successful candidates must have a clear, compelling and understandable mainstream message that addresses voters’ broad concerns and communicates a strong unifying sense of public purpose.

He and his campaign set the terms of the debate and defined the meta-theme of the election - “business as usual will not cut it.” The candidate, who determines what an election is all about, always wins it.

Hickenlooper’s campaign embraced traditional progressive values and advanced them in ways that address changing times, focusing on genuine and relevant reform. Articulated through visionary governing themes, his fresh, innovative and practical ideas championed the values and broad interests of Denverites.

His consistent “New Democrat” messages were on target with voter priorities and appealed across constituencies - reviving a sluggish economy, injecting entrepreneurialism into government and solving the city’s significant budgetary problems. He emphasized spending taxpayer money wisely and expanding opportunity through private-sector growth, along with respect and tolerance for everyone and a government that empowers people, not one that takes care of them.

That winning message did not happen by accident. Before the campaign started, Hickenlooper comprehensively and methodically assessed the big challenges facing the city, visited with mayors across the nation to identify cutting-edge ideas and developed a set of innovative and practical Denver-specific solutions.

From day one, the LoDo restaurateur seemed to “know thyself,” his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate (especially when compared to his opponents), and what it would take to win. Not intimidated by the pundits who called him a long-shot, he insisted that his message and ideas would drive everything else, including fund-raising, recruiting volunteers and generating political support. He distilled that agenda into engaging television ads that used clever and understandable metaphors to explain his candidacy.

Thorough preparation, combined with “knowing thyself,” fueled his ability to communicate consistent messages, while being easygoing and “comfortable in his own skin.” The critical up-front work allowed him, from start to finish, to stay positive, set the terms of the debate, define the election and get an early big lead.

Well before the May election, Hickenlooper had convinced voters that “business as usual” approaches would not solve Denver’s pressing problems. His opponent, Don Mares, sensing that sentiment, futilely tried to become the “outsider,” causing serious damage to his credibility with the electorate.

Voters will never see a candidate, who has been an elected official for over 14 years, as an “outsider.” That turf had already cultivated and thoroughly occupied by Hickenlooper.

Hickenlooper’s background, on the other hand, reinforced the credibility of his message. Voters liked his track record as a businessman who created jobs and met payrolls, and empathized with his experience losing his job in the 1980s and bouncing back. His work for nonprofit groups demonstrated a commitment to the community.

Rather than a compelling, coherent and consistent message, Mares thought the keys would be his experience, his ability to get the endorsements of traditional Democratic constituency/cause-oriented groups, and surrounding himself with Democratic Party operatives. That resulted in an inconsistent, diffuse and fragmented message that rarely spoke to broad middle class aspirations and values. Candidates must define themselves by clearly articulating what they stand for, not merely by the organizations or groups they stand with.

Mares tried to capitalize on his considerable and impressive track record in public office. However, he never explained how his experience would be an asset in solving Denver’s present and future problems. Elections are about the future, not the past.

One of Mares’ other strategies was fire-breathing populism, accusing Hickenlooper of being a Democrat in Republican clothes who supports business interests, not working families, as one who cares about downtown, not neighborhoods. That strident “Old Democrat” message pushed away Denver Republicans from Mares and especially alienated independents who disdain that kind of partisanship. It did not even help with rank-and-file Democrats - one pre-election poll had Hickenlooper ahead by 11 points with members of our party.

Mares failed to recognize that Denver politics has changed dramatically in just the last two or three decades. Populism no longer resonates with an electorate that is now more educated, more affluent, more middle class, more centrist, more independent, more invested in the stock market and less unionized. The old message just pushes away key swing middle- and upper-middle-class voters, who now largely decide elections.

Even Mares’ negative attacks were not well-thought out. Critiquing one’s opponent has its place, often helping voters draw legitimate differences.

However, almost all of the auditor’s charges misfired, and in some cases, even backfired. That undermined his credibility, leading voters to believe he was merely engaging in “politics as usual.” It also hinted that he had no clue about how to meet the present and future challenges facing the city.

Mares simply did not recognize the realities of a high-visibility, media-oriented election. His successes in past campaigns for the state legislature were largely due to his great ability to connect one-on-one with voters and understanding the hand-to-hand combat of northwest Denver Democratic politics.

That background did not prepare him for a campaign that had to communicate clear and compelling messages through the media and appeal to moderate, or even some conservative voters. (His victory in the 1995 city auditor’s race was very close, defeating a Republican with no name recognition in a Democratic-dominated city. He had no opposition in his 1999 re-election).

In contrast, Hickenlooper prevailed because he realized that majorities are built around values and ideas, not narrow appeals to special-interest groups. While Hickenlooper was speaking to the broad concerns of voters, Mares was making very specific promises to attract support from city workers, who, by the way, are fighting the very changes the electorate is demanding.

Tellingly, Hickenlooper helped keep his message consistent by refusing offers from independent organizations who try to help their endorsed candidates. These groups usually emphasize a narrow set of issues they consider important, often confusing their favorite candidate’s message.

For example, Mares got help from the Denver Area Labor Federation with mailings but the literature focused on the priorities of organized labor, not the broader concerns of Denverites. Regardless of its pros and cons, public employee collective bargaining can never have the same broad appeal as Hickenlooper’s agenda of generating jobs and reforming government. Even in Denver, the state’s Democratic stronghold, a strong message will always trump special-interest-group politics.

Democrats around the state should take Hickenlooper’s lead and realize that today’s politics requires understanding the everyday problems facing people, articulating a clear, forward-looking vision and advocating innovative solutions, rooted in mainstream values. Ordinary voters do not see the debate in terms of liberal vs. conservative, but as a battle between those clinging to the familiar past and others willing to embrace an uncertain future with new ideas. They are seeking a new kind of public activism that equips citizens, families, and communities with the tools they need to solve their own problems.

Winning the battle of ideas must become the central focus. Voters want fiscally responsible solutions and progress on those issues that affect them on a daily basis.

If other Democrats learn the right lessons from the extraordinarily successful campaign of Denver’s new Mayor-Elect, better days are sure to be ahead for our party.