New Democrat Update

THE REAL DEMOCRATIC DIVIDE

The big split in the Democratic Party is not between traditional and New Democrats. As demonstrated last month, today’s division is the growing gap between rank-and-file party members and the ultra-partisan activists who attend state assemblies.

Only at the state assembly could Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich garner almost 30 percent of the vote for president. Only there could Attorney General Ken Salazar be edged by Mike Miles in the U.S. Senate race. Only there could a left-wing party platform, including support for a single-payer health system and creation of a federal Department of Peace, see the light of day.

The state assembly is simply not representative of Democratic rank-and-file voters, let alone the state electorate. More often than not, the delegates’ first pick turns out to be the one who eventually loses the party’s primary election.

Increasingly, assemblies are dominated by a collection of constituencies with no clear ideology or unifying sense of purpose. Rooted only in a collective fear of change, most participants believe in the politics of protest, of permanent, reactive opposition.

Disparaging the ideas, beliefs, and causes held dear by most Coloradans, many on the hard left are defined principally by weakness abroad and a belief that capitalism itself is fatally flawed. In their view, the primary mission of government is to redistribute wealth rather than to expand opportunity for everyone to earn it. That offends the optimistic, pro-opportunity values that most Americans - and a significant majority of Democrats - share.

In 1996, a survey by the Washington Post compared the views of delegates to the national Democratic convention to those of registered Democratic voters. While perfectly mirroring the Democratic electorate in terms of race, ethnicity, and gender, the conventioneers and rank-and-file might as well have been from different parties.

Almost two-thirds of the delegates wanted to cut defense spending; most registered Democrats did not. A majority of delegates opposed a five-year time limit for welfare benefits; two-thirds of registered Democrats supported it. Delegates were split on the death penalty; registered Democrats favored it by more than a 2-1 margin. These were not delegates to the Green Party convention; they were delegates committed to re-electing an incumbent Democratic president, who had sided with rank-and-file Democrats on each of those issues!

Rank-and-file Democrats are doers, not ideologues who view themselves as aligned with the self-conscious Left. They do not vote to make a statement; they vote in hopes of getting things done. They want social progress, but they are not on a social crusade. Most are not elitists who think they know better than everyone else; they are everyone else.

The Gallup Organization, which has been measuring the partisan and ideological self-image of American voters for years, published a survey showing that among self-identified Democrats, 33 percent consider themselves liberals, 43 percent consider themselves moderates, and 23 percent consider themselves conservatives (moderates and conservatives outnumber liberals). The real Democratic Party is a diverse coalition that shares progressive values and policy goals and has a proud history of commitment to the interests and aspirations of working Americans.

According to another survey, this one conducted by Clinton pollster Mark Penn, rank-and-file party members favor mainstream Democratic candidates over liberal Democrats. In fact, strong majorities of self-identified liberal Democrats support New Democrat principles like a strong defense, access to health insurance in a system that balances government and individual responsibility, progressive taxation and believing that fiscal discipline is fundamental to sustained economic growth.

Despite their split from traditional activists, rank-and-file Democrats themselves are very united, desperately wanting to beat Republicans - coupled with a strong desire to expand the party's appeal, not limit its reach. Similar to their fellow party members across the country, Colorado rank-and-file Democrats are mainstream and largely middle-class.

They seek candidates who show not just what they are against, but what they are for. They are motivated by hope and opportunity, not anger.

PREVAILING IN NOVEMBER

Democrats cannot just count on the economy continuing to tailspin. Our candidates must advocate reformist ideas that expand economic opportunity - not decry individual success, but offer a positive plan to make sure that everyone willing to work for it has the chance to get ahead.

Similarly, our candidates must be progressive internationalists with ideas that will unite the world against terror, including winning the peace in Iraq. That is in stark contrast to the leftist view that all Democrats have to say on Iraq is "I told you so."

We need to show voters that we will honor their values, defend their country, restore fiscal sanity, offer bold plans to expand opportunity for the forgotten middle class and think twice before spending the tax dollars they worked so hard to earn. At the end of the day, we must allay their fears and assure them that their future will be better than the past.

Politically, Colorado’s numbers cannot be denied. The electorate is 37% Republican, 33% unaffiliated and 30% Democratic. With state politics in such flux and neither party in the majority, each election starts from scratch.

Not so long ago, enough voters had a history with one party that a nominee could concentrate on getting his voters to the polls. Today, a candidate has to perform a more difficult feat - to inspire his party base and hold his own among swing voters who have shunned that party for a reason.

Democrats can only win if our candidates convince voters that he or she is better than our party. In other words, Democrats must energize the party faithful and earn the support of a large majority of unaffiliated voters.

Dishing a lot of red meat will not carry us to victory. In addition to turning out voters who already agree with us, we must focus on persuading the fence-sitters who still need convincing. A recent study by the respected Pew Research Center identified fully 29 percent of the voters this fall as swing voters.

As a result, state Democratic candidates must not answer Republican prayers and make this election an ideological contest between liberals and conservatives. That is the one battle the GOP knows it can win. If our party falls into that trap, Republicans will never have to answer for their gross mismanagement of the war in Iraq, an incredibly horrible economic record, or the state’s fiscal mess.

Unnecessarily polarizing the debate and drawing sharp lines on every conceivable issue will only be self-defeating. That would only significantly diminish our appeal to swing voters, while providing no guarantee of increasing our vote over the vote of the other side.

If we get it right, 2004 can be a great year for Colorado Democrats. A well-honed, modernized progressive vision, smart policy ideas and intelligent political strategies, along with the humility and patience to speak to voters who do not always agree with us, are sure to make the difference this November.

To win this fall, Colorado Democrats must persuade, not just energize.