New Democrat Update

JOIN SENATOR CLINTON AT THE NATIONAL CONVERSATION!

The National Conversation, the Democratic Leadership Council’s annual meeting, is rapidly approaching - July 22-24 at the Hyatt Regency-Colorado Convention Center in downtown Denver. Space is filling up fast and time is running out. If you have not yet registered, do it now.

The participation of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY), Governor Tom Vilsack (IA) Senator Tom Carper (DE) and Governor Janet Napolitano (AZ) has been confirmed. Senator Ken Salazar, Representatives Mark Udall and John Salazar, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff and Denver City Council President Rosemary Rodriguez will also be there.

More than 50 Colorado elected officials - including state legislators, mayors, councilpeople, town board trustees, school board members and state board of education representatives - have already signed up. So should you.

The registration fee of $200 has been waived for elected officials. A limited number of scholarships are available to help cover the hotel costs for elected officials who live outside the Denver metropolitan area.

Everyone must register in advance - and because of limited space - as soon as possible. There is no onsite registration.

For more information and a registration form, contact Jim Gibson at 303-860-7183 or toll-free outside the Denver Metro area, 1-877-COLODLC (1-877-265-6352).

ENLARGING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE

Sen. Ken Salazar won his U.S. Senate race in 2004 because he made important inroads into what has been viewed as Republican territory - the faster-growing counties of Colorado. Sen. John Kerry, on the other hand, lost the state because he came up short in those same areas. Those are some of the conclusions from an important new report, "Growing the Vote," by Ed Kilgore, national DLC Vice President for Policy.

Of course, getting loyal Democrats to the polls is always important. In 2004, the good news is that the party’s mobilization effort in traditional Democratic areas was very successful. The bad news, for the future, is that it will be increasingly more difficult to squeeze even more Democratic votes from friendly counties that are declining in voting-age population (VAP).

That, combined with the reality that GOP areas have experienced higher rates of growth, means that mobilizing areas filled with loyal Democratic voters is simply not enough to push our party over the finish line. In fact, the data clearly show that Democrats must successfully persuade voters, from Republican-leaning growth areas, to prevail here and around the country.

Democrats who have won red states have proven it can be done. The study takes a close look at the three success stories - U.S. Senator and Colorado DLC Co-Chair Ken Salazar, North Carolina Governor Mike Easley and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine.

As Kilgore indicates, “Republican areas are growing rapidly while Democratic areas are not. In 2004, Republicans benefitted crucially from an expanding pool of potential voters in their base areas, while Democrats suffered from a shrinking or stagnant pool of potential voters in their base areas . . . The evidence from 2004 shows that voting-age-population (VAP) growth in Republican areas, not voter mobilization, was the single most important factor in helping the GOP boost its vote from four years earlier. Conversely, Democratic turnout efforts, especially in large cities, were very successful, often producing sharp increases in total votes and Democratic votes despite reductions in the VAP . . . Democrats must expand their base with outreach and persuasion to voters in fast-growing areas. Otherwise, even the most exceptional Democratic voter mobilization techniques and investments will struggle to produce more votes from fewer potential voters.”

Focusing specifically on Colorado, “His (Ken Salazar’s) total vote exceeded Kerry’s by 79,456; the two big Democratic base counties, Denver and Boulder, contributed only 4,362 votes to that margin. Heavily Republican and incredibly fast-growing Douglas County, with 39 percent VAP growth from 2000 to 2004, alone contributed 5,764 votes . . . Ken Salazar’s advantage over Kerry in large Republican and marginal counties was really the difference, since they gained 169,000 in VAP, even as large Democratic counties lost 20,000 in VAP.”

It is easy to fall into the trap of overlooking growing places like Douglas County because Democrats, including Kerry and Salazar, lose by such big margins there. The critical difference is that Salazar lost there by a significantly smaller margin. That’s especially important to achieve in growing areas that are becoming bigger factors in the statewide total. Salazar made similar important inroads into other high-growth Republican strongholds like Arapahoe, El Paso, Larimer, Mesa and Weld counties.

While a vote is a vote regardless of location, an additional vote for a Democrat in a growing Republican area may be even more important than another one from friendlier terrain. For example, converting an otherwise Republican vote into a Democratic one in Douglas County increases the overall Democratic margin by two. Getting another Democratic Denverite to the polls increases it by one.

In addition to effective organizing on the ground, mobilizing the base and making inroads into growing, traditional Republican areas requires candidates who communicate compelling and optimistic visions, with simple thematic messages. In other words, the electorate needs to understand how Democrats see the world.

Candidates should also be culturally comfortable with voters in both traditionally Democratic and Republican areas. Emphasizing mainstream values like patriotism, duty, opportunity for all, respect, faith, hard work, strength, community, self-reliance, family and responsibility will get the job done in both types of areas, while derailing the familiar GOP refrain of Democrats lacking character and deeply-held moral convictions.

Without question, making more inroads into fast-growing, traditional Republican areas is the roadmap to an enduring progressive majority coalition.

DEFEATING JIHADISM

As the Bush administration fails to win the peace in Afghanistan and Iraq, Americans are looking to Democrats as an alternative to get national security right. Instead of falling back on easy criticisms of the administration's blunders, a new Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) book argues that progressives should seize the moment by proposing a comprehensive agenda for winning the war against jihadist terrorism - an agenda rooted in the tough-minded, internationalist tradition of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy.

The book, “With All Our Might: A Progressive Strategy for Defeating Jihadism and Defending Liberty” (Rowman & Littlefield), edited by PPI President Will Marshall, includes essays by 19 top Democratic foreign policy and national security experts. It is a must read for Democrats focused on recapturing the White House and, more importantly, every citizen interested in protecting America.

A glimpse of the book is available in the latest Blueprint magazine. As always, it also includes much more.