New Democrat Update - October 2006
PURPLE TURNING BLUE?
Colorado is a swing state that could turn Democratic in the near future, according to a DLC poll conducted by RBI Strategies. When asked with which party they identify in the state legislature, despite a Republican six-point party registration advantage, Coloradans are split right down the middle. Unaffiliated voters make it a dead heat, favoring Democrats by an eight-point margin (37%-29%) over the GOP.
Why? On issue after issue, Republicans have moved out of the mainstream and sharply to the ideological right. Meanwhile, Colorado Democrats have demonstrated that they are mainstream problem-solvers - explaining why many unaffiliated voters are moving our way.
Unaffiliated voters decisively believe that state Republicans are more extreme than Democrats. A mere seven percent think of Democrats as “very liberal” while almost two-thirds say Republicans are “very conservative.” In fact, 28% associate “moderate” with Democrats while only seven percent felt similarly about the GOP, a 4-to-1 advantage. Republican efforts to win unaffiliated votes by labeling Democrats as "liberals" will not work for a very simple reason - swing voters do not believe it.
The definition of what it means to be a Democrat or Republican is crucial. The outcomes of elections are largely determined by how candidates are defined (candidates’ party labels and their meaning have proven to be significant factors). How Democrats define themselves and ultimately govern makes all the difference in the world - especially to those unaffiliated voters who decide elections.
It is no surprise that the poll shows voters strongly favor Democrats on education and health care, along with renewable energy and environmental issues. That has been the case for years. The big news is that state Democrats have narrowed the advantages Republicans had traditionally experienced on the economy, crime, and taxes (The charge of “tax and spend” remains the biggest worry for voters about Democrats. Confronting that concern is addressed below).
To turn Colorado long-term blue, Democrats must especially take the lead on the economy and jobs, almost always a top concern of voters. The messages of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter and House Speaker Andrew Romanoff will get that done - investing in a skilled workforce, health care and transportation, while balancing the state budget.
Interestingly, state Democrats have also neutralized Republicans on the all-important front of moral values, another traditional strength of the GOP. Personal characteristics (integrity, honesty, knowing right from wrong) trumped how Republicans define morality these days (anti-abortion, fidelity, anti-gay marriage).
The relatively recent emergence of illegal immigration as a top concern poses specific challenges. Without knowing the party’s respective positions articulated during the special session (the poll was conducted at that time), voters gravitate, by default, to the GOP. However, once a fair summary of each party’s arguments during the special session is presented, Democrats actually experience a small lead on the issue.
That means, like on other “tough governing” issues (crime, taxes, etc.) where the GOP has an edge, Democrats should not just “avoid the subject” and move to “compassionate” issues (health care, education, etc.) where we are traditionally strong. Instead, we must refuse to play this silly game of "issue ownership," and directly address all concerns in a distinct and credible manner. The way to deal with the “tough governing” issues is to actually deal with them - not cede them to the opposition.
As former President Bill Clinton demonstrated, neutralizing Republican advantages on "their" issues can make elections turn on “our” issues. The alternative - silence - is not golden.
The concerns of voters do not go away when Democrats try to change the subject. In fact, people can smell fear if a politician plays that game. When voters have a question, they want an answer. Silence only confirms their worst fears about us.
Avoiding the subject has another counterproductive impact. It is very condescending and downright elitist to tell voters, who care passionately about some “tough governing” issues, that they should move on and only care about something we happen to think is important.
In the end, minimizing our perceived weaknesses on some issues is just as advantageous as maximizing our strengths. The public will begin to listen to "our" priorities only once we addressed all of theirs - not the Republicans’, but the public's.
Of course, turning Colorado solid blue long-term will not just be a matter of positioning or rhetoric. Instead, it will come from authentic, problem-solving public policies that produce tangible results. No matter what anyone says about politics being all about "spin," real-life results matter most.
There is much more to learn from the poll’s results. Click here for the report, topline results and slide presentation. This survey of 650 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.84% at a 95% confidence level, was conducted on the Internet in July 2006.
The poll was made possible by the generous financial support of Tim Gill, Richard Rogel, the national Democratic Leadership Council and John Huggins. The Colorado DLC sincerely thanks each of them for their invaluable help.
DEFEATING THE TAX-AND-SPEND CHARGE
The poll reveals that blasting Democrats as the party of "tax and spend" is the most effective weapon in the GOP political arsenal. As progressives who justifiably believe that government has a role to play in our society, including helping those less fortunate, it is easy to see why Republicans can often characterize Democrats as the party of big government.
The views of Coloradans represent fertile ground for such a charge. According to the poll, 87 percent agree that “government is wasteful more frequently than it is efficient” and 75 percent believe that “poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs.” Clearly, Democrats avoid confronting the “tax and spend” charge at their peril.
At each and every opportunity, Democrats must emphasize putting government's fiscal house in order, if Coloradans are to trust them to undertake any big new initiatives like universal health care, college access, or preschool. It should be to the point of actually mentioning the new investments and maintaining fiscal discipline in the very same sentence, if not part of the same message.
With a relentless emphasis on accountability and results, Democrats must focus on the outcomes particular investments produce, rather than just the amount of money being spent. In addition, those outcomes should be from the perspective of voters, not government agencies. For example, "these new investments in roads and mass transit will shorten your commute time" beats "the Department of Transportation needs more money.” The latter sounds like an elected official representing government departments to the voter, rather than the reverse.
We must also continually emphasize reexamining every dollar of taxpayers' money spent. It is important to acknowledge that not every problem can be solved by a government program and when personal responsibility must be part of the solution. Taxing and spending our way out of every challenge is simply not desirable or feasible.
Voters indistinctly understand all that. Democrats must demonstrate that they do too.