New Democrat Update - November 2002
EARNING THE HISPANIC VOTE
Both political parties are aggressively vying for the Hispanic vote. The winner will be the one with the right public policy agenda.
The increased attention results from two basic factors. First, the Hispanic voting population continues to grow at a fast rate, increasing by 75 percent between 1996 and 2000. Now 15 percent of the electorate, it takes only 5.2 percent of Colorado Hispanic voters to make a 1 percent change in a statewide election.
Second, Hispanics are increasingly declaring their independence from both major parties. While large majorities still vote for Democrats, serious threats loom on the horizon. The Democratic presidential vote advantage was almost split in half between 1996 and 2000. Almost two-thirds of Hispanics planning to become citizens do not refer to themselves as a member of either major political party.
Hispanics believe in the American dream. An AFL-CIO poll last year revealed that large majorities believe they can succeed in America. Optimistic about the country and their economic futures, they consider owning a business an important personal goal with large majorities believing that "no matter how poor you start out in this country, you can make it if you work hard." While combating discrimination must remain a top priority for Democrats, only advocating a platform for an aggrieved minority group would be counterproductive.
Republicans see other opportunities to make inroads because the GOP generally does better with churchgoers, two-parent households with children, and voters who put more emphasis on "family values"- characteristics stronger in the Hispanic community than the general population. As more Hispanics move up the income scale into the middle class and beyond (record-breaking rates of improvement in joblessness and business ownership occurred during the 1990s), values may become an even more important priority.
For now, Democrats are doing well because Hispanics believe our party is better for working families and at providing the tools for upward mobility. In fact, when asked how they identify themselves, more Hispanics chose "working families" over an ethnic group identification.
Consequently, to keep and build support among Hispanics, Democrats must advocate aggressive economic empowerment initiatives, framed in terms of family values, or what it takes to provide a better life for one’s family. Our party should emphasize the importance of parenting and "valuing families," including early childhood development, educational opportunities, classroom discipline, character education, economic well-being, retirement security, targeted tax relief and children's health.
Just as important, Democrats must stop coming across as espousing "anything goes" dogma. For one, we should conduct an all-out assault on the proliferation of sex and violence in the media. That will help with Hispanic, as well as many white and African-American voters.
Abortion is another example. The public’s strong support of the pro-choice position often tempts Democrats to draw very bright lines with the opposition. However, like many other communities, Hispanics are very ambivalent about the issue.
While the Democratic Party must remain pro-choice, we should also recognize and respect that many good people of conscience sincerely disagree. Intransigent opposition and unnecessarily polarizing language alienates independent and otherwise progressive voters.
The immigration issue is very important. While ambivalent about large immigrant flows, Hispanics feel no such doubt about immigrant rights. They value the contributions immigrants make, condemn immigrant bashing and reject policies that disqualify legal immigrants from government assistance. For many, immigrant rights are an everyday issue directly affecting friends, relatives, neighbors, or even themselves.
While having some unique attributes, Hispanics want what the large majority of voters want - an agenda that gives them the tools they need to realize their own dreams and welcomes all Americans into the very fabric of our society, our culture, and our community. They seek smarter and non-bureaucratic policies that equip people with the tools to solve their own problems in their own communities.
Democrats must push for new ways to make the American dream a reality for everyone. We must protect and build the middle class that is the heart and soul of our nation and, just as importantly, honor its values - freedom, equality, inclusion, family, community, faith, patriotism, hard work, tolerance, opportunity for all, and personal responsibility from all.
That New Democrat agenda has demonstrated it can generate support from the middle class and those less fortunate. That’s exactly why it will also succeed with Hispanics.
A CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE
The increasing dominance of money in the political process is troubling. Unfortunately, Colorado’s well-intentioned campaign finance reformers are likely to make the system worse.
Disgusted with politics and special-interest money, voters will probably approve Amendment 27 this Election Day. In addition to voluntary campaign spending limits, the measure restricts individual contributions to candidates and political parties.
Reformers consistently overvalue the importance of money in politics. In fact, elections are decided on the basis of the current environment, candidate strength, message quality and adequate financial resources. A lack of money guarantees losing but more money no guarantee of winning - necessary but far from sufficient.
Reformers assume that Amendment 27 will reduce the amount spent, the need for fund-raising, and candidate dependence on interested money. In their view, 27's very low contribution limits will eliminate the dominance of rich donors, leveling the political playing field.
In reality, 27 will enhance the power of incumbency by increasing the importance of name recognition, staff, constituent service, and media access. Low limits will result in candidates spending much more time raising money and donors funneling money to special-interest "educational organizations" that have no disclosure requirements (Approval of Amendment 27 will spur a new growth industry). That money will go underground, resulting in much less public knowledge about which interests are trying to influence the system.
With no control over these outside groups, candidates will drive less of the debate. That will make it harder for voters to hold candidates accountable for much of what is said during a campaign. To make matters worse, those educational organizations will be dominated by special interests, pushing both parties to their extremes.
Today’s political reformers are engaging in demagoguery that feeds a public cynicism already dangerously too high. Their rhetoric is undermining the very system they seek to improve. Instead, they should refocus their energies, start working at defining the problem more accurately, and offer solutions that are "outside the box."
For example, one way to cut through public distrust is to change the way we have political debate on television. Requiring local television stations to provide a few minutes of free prime time on alternating evenings will help decrease the current reliance on 30-second ads. To promote a healthy debate, candidates will be required to talk into the camera the whole time. No props, journalists, or surrogates - just the candidate.
Hopefully, the pollsters are wrong about Amendment 27 prospects. Otherwise, expect an even more dysfunctional political system - and even more public cynicism.