New Democrat Update - November 2008
OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTIONS ON THE 2008 ELECTION
The following perspective is from Al From, founder and chief executive officer of the national Democratic Leadership Council.
Obama's election marked a wonderful moment for America. Tears rolled down my cheeks as I watched President-elect Obama's speech.
Forty-two years ago, I came to Washington to work for Sarge Shriver in the War on Poverty. I worked in Lowndes County and Wilcox County, Ala.; in Selma, Ala.; and in Sunflower County, Miss. -- the home of Ms. Fannie Lou Hamer, who fought so hard to integrate the Democratic Party in that state. In most of the places I worked, Barack Obama could have voted (I didn't start until after passage of the Voting Rights Act), but he would have faced many obstacles to casting that ballot.
That said, we are just now beginning to understand what shaped the outcome on Tuesday -- which sets of voters turned our way, came to the polls, and marked the beginning of a coalition we will need to incubate and grow to maintain a long-term majority. Here are some of my initial thoughts and observations.
The election was influenced heavily by the nation's disgust with President Bush. Only 21 percent of voters believed that the nation was headed in the right direction. The president's approval rating was just 27 percent. Just 7 percent thought the economy was doing well. In contrast, four years ago, nearly one-half of voters thought the country was on the right track, more than one-half approved of the job Bush was doing, and 47 percent thought the economy was good or excellent.
The issue most important to voters changed dramatically from four years ago. This year a whopping 61 percent named the economy as the issue of greatest concern -- up from just 20 percent in 2004, when moral values topped voters' agendas (22 percent).
There were no massive changes in makeup of the electorate -- but there were some. The African-American vote grew from 11 percent to 13 percent -- and Obama won 95 percent of them. The Latino vote largely stayed steady. The white vote dropped from 77 percent to 74 percent of the electorate.
The youth vote went overwhelmingly for Obama, though turnout among young people did not increase dramatically as a proportion of the electorate, growing just one point from 17 percent four years ago to 18 percent in this election. But look at the swing: Obama won the youth vote by 32 percentage points, Kerry won it by only 9 points. So young voters made a difference.
Particularly important for the future: Among young white voters, who comprised 12 percent of the electorate, Obama won 54 percent to 44 percent.
Obama did very well among high-income voters, winning those who make less than $100,000 by 12 percentage points. He lost voters who make between $100,000 and $200,000 by 1 point -- but that compares favorably to John Kerry, who lost them by 18 points. Obama won those who make more than $200,000 by 6 points.
Historically, the Democratic presidential candidate has won only highly educated voters and high school dropouts. But Obama won every category. While he lost whites without a college degree nationally, he cut the margin in places where he was most focused -- namely Ohio -- to 8 percentage points.
The electorate remains largely where they were when describing their political philosophy. Even in a great Democratic victory more voters said they were conservative (34 percent) than liberal (22 percent) -- 44 percent of voters self-identified as moderates.
While John Kerry lost married voters with children by 19 percentage points, Obama lost them by only 2 percent.
Eighty-one percent of voters said they were worried about economic conditions. Among those voters, Obama claimed a 10-point spread. Note that only 47 percent of voters thought the economy was in poor condition four years ago.
The quality that mattered most to voters was whether a candidate could "bring change." Obama had a corner on the market.
But Democratic successes extended well beyond the presidential race. Democrats who have embraced our style of governing were elected to prominent positions across the country. Jack Markell will be governor of Delaware. Jay Nixon will be governor of Missouri. Bev Purdue will be governor of North Carolina.
Democrats took control of five additional state legislatures and 60 percent of the nation's governorships.
To think that little more than four decades after the Voting Rights Act became law an African-American could be elected president of the United States is a testimony not only to President-elect Obama and the spectacular campaign he ran, but to our unbelievable country and the progress we have made. America is not perfect; we have many serious problems. But every American should be proud of our country today. Now President-elect Obama and the new, enthusiastic generation he will bring with him can get to work to make our country an even more perfect union.
”MEMOS TO THE NEXT PRESIDENT”
In the last two months, the DLC's think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute, released a series of policy documents written directly to the next occupant of the White House. This series is based upon a firm belief that our nation faces a series of challenges that cannot be skirted or put off any longer, and that the White House has an indispensable part to play in meeting these challenges. They are available here.
Throughout American history, the most effective presidents have used their constitutional powers and their "bully pulpit" to galvanize the nation and bring about necessary change. Such leadership has been tragically lacking for the past eight years, and the new president will have an opportunity to lead America forward on numerous fronts. PPI's Memos to the Next President are intended as short guides on how to begin, building upon our organizational tradition of large, influential ideas that shape our national life.
In a Washington where political-message advice abounds, PPI continues to focus on what works -- substantive ideas that policymakers can actually use to help make our communities and our nation more prosperous, more dynamic, and more secure.
The memos cover a range of topics, from health care to global trade. If there's any common theme to these pieces, it is probably an emphasis on policy issues that have tended to receive too little public attention during the campaign.
The memos reflect a commitment to pragmatic solutions, bold alternatives, and a policy vision that is unambiguously progressive, yet never beholden to stale party orthodoxies. We hope you find this series useful and interesting. We invite your feedback.