New Democrat Update - December 2002
2002 ELECTION POSTMORTEM
Last month's election was very disappointing for state Democrats. While picking up a seat in the State House, our party also lost one State Senate seat, handing Republicans a slim 18-17 majority. As they did after the 1998 election, Republicans control the legislative and executive branches of state government.
State Republicans were significantly helped by voters' desire for the status quo. Incumbents were decisively re-elected in the six of the seven congressional seats (4 Republicans and 2 Democrats) and all statewide offices (4 Republicans and 1 Democrat). In the newly drawn 7th Congressional District, former State Sen. Mike Feeley lost by a razor-thin margin (pending the results of an automatic recount).
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Democrats more than held their own in areas where they usually do well. The five Democratic statewide candidates, combined, won 18 of Colorado's 64 counties by a healthy 59-41 margin - very similar to Gore's advantage in 2000 (after accounting for Ralph Nader's presence on the ballot).
In the absence of exit poll data, many local pundits rushed into the vacuum, proclaiming that the GOP's success was due to a Get-Out-The-Vote effort that resulted in a significantly higher Republican turnout. In fact, turnout in the "Democratic" counties was higher than the "Republican" counties, relative to the 2000 election - when our party took control of the State Senate for the first time in 40 years (Although turnout is lower in non-presidential elections, the Democratic decrease from 2000 to 2002 was less than the Republicans').
Democrats fell short because we were virtually unable to break into regions where the GOP has been strong - Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson and the large majority of rural counties - winning there by a higher margin, 62-38. To make matters worse, the winning Democratic counties represented only 31% of the total statewide vote, while the GOP's counties constituted a whopping 69% of the total vote!
Traditional Democrats are correct when they contend a lack of differentiation between the parties hurt our chances. However, their remedy to develop more clarity - moving to the left and increasing partisan differences - would be politically disastrous.
That strategy would only energize the bases of both parties, digging a bigger hole for Democrats in a state where hard-core conservatives significantly outnumber true-blue liberals. A highly Democratic partisan message would also alienate independent voters - the very folks we need to get over the top - keeping them away from the polls or even pushing them in the GOP column.
The large majority of Coloradans are centrist, independent, pragmatic, educated, and middle class. A progressive majority coalition requires an energized Democratic base, a large share of independent voters, and inroads in traditional GOP territory. It must include men as well as women, whites as well as African-Americans and Hispanics, suburban and rural Coloradans as well as city dwellers, moderates and even some conservatives as well as liberals. It must unite the interests of voters in the working class with those in the middle- and upper-middle classes.
Here is how Democrats can get all that done.
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY
In today's world, majority coalitions are built around values and ideas, not narrow appeals to special-interest groups. In addition to smart campaign tactics and adequate funding, winning elections requires an in-depth understanding of the real, everyday problems facing voters and advocating a new set of innovative solutions, rooted in mainstream values.
Colorado Democrats need a new platform on which to stand, and a framework from which to work. Both should be driven by the state's needs, the policies that best meet those challenges and a strategy that effectively promotes those policies.
Developing a winning message and agenda is even more important for Democrats because we believe in an activist government that puts ideas into action. At a time of significant distrust of the public sector, progressives have a considerably higher bar to jump.
Without a competitive, compelling Democratic agenda, Republicans are able to exploit that public distrust with messages emphasizing tax cutting, less regulation and less government. As history shows, voters reward Democrats when our ideas work and chastise us when they do not; they flock to us when we reflect their values and flee when we lose touch with their values.
Those values should be equal opportunity for all, special privilege for none, cultural tolerance, a public ethic of mutual responsibility, and a commitment to those less fortunate - opportunity, responsibility, community, and a government that empowers people. We should be emphasizing responsibilities as well as rights - in direct contrast with entitlement-driven politics and the neglectful right-wing mentality of "every man for himself."
More specifically, we should embrace mainstream, values-based positions on tough issues, like abortion, gun safety and gay rights, without implying that a decent and reasonable person cannot have a different view. Voters who feel marginalized, even demonized, by hard-left rhetoric always retaliate.
Well-defined messages, communicating these values and a set of ideas, must appeal across constituencies, rather than constantly pitching individual government programs at special-interest groups. Connecting with voters who are increasingly upscale and more educated requires clear messages of what we stand for, not just by the organizations we stand with.
Our messages must be relevant, credible and understandable. Relevancy means addressing the real priorities and everyday concerns facing voters. We must appeal to the electorate as it is and not as it was - more educated, more affluent, more female, more middle class, more diverse, more centrist, more suburban, more independent, less unionized and less urban than the electorate of the prior century. Credibility requires believable messengers and messages, backed up by an agenda of specific and consistent initiatives, that make common sense. Understandability requires everyday language voters can process and comprehend.
For example, Democrats can make inroads in the suburbs and rural areas with a comprehensive statewide economic strategy that includes better education, skills training, technology infrastructure, and transportation improvements. That package will simultaneously enhance the quality of life in the suburbs and boost the economic vitality of more rural areas.
The sheer number of voters tell us that competing and doing better in the suburbs is essential. However, while beatable, GOP competition will probably prevent us from totally dominating suburbia.
Which is precisely why we must not forget rural Colorado. Despite Attorney General Ken Salazar's strong showing around the state, the combined Democratic statewide votes in 2002 often hovered around only 30 percent in some rural counties. While winning a rural majority in this lifetime might not be a realistic goal, a message and agenda, which more closely reflects their economic needs and basic values, will significantly reduce the GOP's now overwhelming margins.
These messages, ideas and values will solve Colorado's problems, as well as boost the political prosperity of Democrats. If we get the job done, much more triumphant Election Days are sure to be in our Party's future.