New Democrat Update - December 2004
HOW THE SALAZARS DID IT
November 2nd was a great day for Colorado Democrats. At the federal level, Ken and John Salazar won a U.S. Senate race and a congressional seat - both “takeaways” from Republicans. Those victories narrow the Republican margin in the state’s federal delegation from 7-2 to 5-4.
The Democratic takeover of the General Assembly was the only one of its kind in the entire nation - a state legislature where the party majority changed hands in both houses. It is the state’s first Democratic majority in 44 years.
These impressive accomplishments are all the more amazing considering Bush’s victory here and nationally. Clearly, something special - and very instructive for our party - happened in Colorado. Following this analysis are four lessons Democrats should learn from the Salazars’ campaigns.
Attorney General Ken Salazar won because he beat Peter Coors among the all-important middle class by four percentage points - well ahead of Kerry’s performance in the state (defined as households with annual incomes between $30,000 and $100,000, almost 60 percent of the total electorate). Democrats win elections when they do well with the middle class, they lose when they don’t.
In addition to winning the middle class, the Attorney General cut the Republican advantage among married voters in half and overcame Bush’s decisive victories in the suburbs and ran 10 points ahead of Kerry among rural voters (where Bush won by an almost 2-1 margin). Salazar was also helped by getting over 70 percent of the Latino vote, eight percent of the electorate.
Salazar’s support was very broad, winning ten more counties than Kerry. He won independent voters by a margin of 18 points. He even demonstrated strength among Republicans, doing three times better with GOP voters than Coors did with Democrats. The crucial Democratic rank-and-file rallied behind his candidacy, providing a little over half of Salazar’s total votes. Another 37 percent of his support came from unaffiliated voters.
Overall, that enabled him to beat a well-known and well-financed opponent by four points, despite the fact that Colorado turnout mirrored its voter registration rolls - 38% Republican, 29% Democratic. In comparison, national Democrats were dismayed that turnout from both parties was equal across the country.
How did Salazar win in a state that went for Bush? While running even with Kerry’s strong advantage on the economy, Salazar and his message successfully confronted the opposition’s key strength on the domestic front - values (Democrats must also overcome a significant Republican advantage on national security which, while key for all federal candidates, is especially important at the presidential level).
Both he and his brother, State Rep. John Salazar, offered compelling and optimistic visions, with simple thematic messages. Rooted in a working-class and rural background, their San Luis Valley values - patriotism, duty, opportunity for all, respect, faith, hard work, strength, community, self-reliance, family and responsibility - derailed the familiar GOP refrain of Democrats lacking character and deeply-held moral convictions.
Both campaigns prove that a sincere connection with voters on values is essential. The electorate needs to understand how candidates see the world. Speaking the language of mainstream values will get both goals done much more effectively than delving into the details of issues and programs.
Many voters, not just those of the religious right, are uneasy about the country’s social fabric. Parents are especially concerned about a popular culture that encourages sex, violence and drugs. In a post-election New York Times/CBS poll, 70 percent see Hollywood and the media as having a corrosive effect on the nation’s moral standards.
As the Salazars show, Democrats can effectively deal with voters' moral anxieties without abandoning progressive principles. While respecting those with different views, neither yielded on positions like a woman's right to choose, civil rights and equal opportunity, or tolerance and inclusion for gays and lesbians.
Too many in our party engage in a kind of cultural condescension, disengage from the debate, and try to change the subject. Meanwhile, Republicans repeatedly make their case to an anxious electorate that declining private morality is fueling troubling social ills like juvenile crime rates and teenage pregnancy. Our silence, in addition to making Democrats appear to be culturally elitist, allows the religious right to dominate the moral vocabulary and ultimately prevail in the debate. Dealing with divisive social issues means not dodging the questions but having good answers to them.
Mainstream messages on the culture also prevent the opposition from characterizing Democrats as anti-family, anti-religious, anti-Second Amendment, or aligned with morally corrosive forces in our society. That enables Democrats to more effectively expose the weaknesses, extremism and hypocrisy of the right wing. For example, Ken Salazar’s credibility on values allowed him to effectively criticize Coors’ views on lowering the drinking age and his brewery’s sex-saturated commercials.
Of course, confronting social issues does not mean that Democrats abandon the very important value of economic opportunity for the middle-class and those less fortunate. In fact, the economy itself and other priorities should be aggressively addressed in more value-laden terms.
U.S. Sen. John Edwards’ theme of work over wealth (through comprehensive tax reform) conveys a strong belief in the work ethic, closely accompanied by a sense of individual dignity, responsibility and self-respect. That is also completely consistent with opposing the complete repeal of the estate tax and fighting for stronger corporate oversight. It is simply not fair for rich people to get richer without effort and rewarding tax evasion, deceiving small investors and raiding pension funds.
Debates about budgets should not be about this line item or that program. Instead, when progressives disagree with Republican priorities, we should emphasize our shared moral responsibilities in value-laden language. For example, “Republicans are violating our duty to our parents (health care for seniors), violating our duty to provide opportunity for all (education), and violating our duty to protect our heritage (environment ).” Pork barrel spending and huge budget deficits should be described as “passing debts on to your children.” At the end of the day, voters must know what kind of America Democrats want.
When properly framed, positions on many issues can also send value-laden messages. While John Salazar was actively working to defeat a 2003 water bond ballot measure (Referendum A), his opponent, Greg Walcher, had strongly supported it as a member of Gov. Owens’ administration. The contrasting message was clear to Western Slope voters - which of you, under pressure from partisan or other special interests, will still stand up for me? Walcher never had a good answer.
What the lessons should the Salazars’ campaigns teach Democrats? Here are four.
Lesson One: Mobilizing loyal Democratic voters is only part of what it takes to prevail. We must also persuade many voters who are ambivalent about both parties.
Lesson Two: Moral visions, which appeal to the heart, are always much more compelling than policy ones, which challenge the mind. Democrats must connect with people’s feelings, as well as their thoughts.
Lesson Three: Dismissing the cultural debate always provides the other side with an huge opportunity to unfavorably define our values (or lack thereof). Closely related, when opponents attack your values, fire back immediately. As much as people dislike bullies, they detest even more those who will not fight back.
Lesson Four: Democrats must take our progressive values and communicate a compelling narrative that gets at the roots of people’s economic and cultural anxieties and demonstrates how our ideas will solve the country’s challenges. We must - for the sake of our country and state - convince voters that America will be a much better place with more poor people becoming self-sufficient, a more responsible media, a stronger sense of responsibility in our culture, a sense of purpose beyond self-interest, policies that ensure no full-time worker has to live in poverty, much better financial and environmental stewardship, increased tolerance, and greater inclusion and accountability at all levels of society.
Authentic value-laden messages, on the culture as well as the economy, will build a progressive majority coalition of rank-and-file Democrats and droves of independent voters. For proof, Democrats only have to look at the lives - and values - of two San Luis Valley natives.
THE POWER TO SOLVE PROBLEMS
It is very difficult not to be impressed with the Democrats’ victories in the state legislature. They strongly defended their turf, made decisive inroads in areas once dominated by Republicans, and now have the potential to threaten the opposition’s once-thought-to-be solid territory. The State House, once a 37-28 Republican majority, is now 35-30 Democratic. The party holds an 18-17 edge in the State Senate.
The victory was impressive in a number of ways. Every incumbent Democrat was re-elected while five current GOP lawmakers went down to defeat. The GOP failed to pick up any open Democratic seats (seats vacated by incumbent Democrats not running for re-election) at the same time three open Republican seats moved into the Democratic column.
In the Senate, Democrats regained a one-seat majority by decisively defeating a suburban Republican incumbent. Two open Democratic seats were successfully defended in Boulder and Larimer counties. Rural and suburban Colorado were the difference for House Democrats including the defeat of three Republican incumbents by comfortable margins in Arapahoe, Adams and Weld counties and edging two other incumbent Republicans in Jefferson County. The Democratic “takeaways” from open Republican seats were also impressive. All three of these Democrats were elected by significant margins from rural regions normally friendly to the GOP - Southeast Colorado and the Western Slope.
How did Democrats do it? In a nutshell, our team had better, more experienced candidates, mainstream messages and adequate financing to get the message out. Like the Salazars, the campaigns mobilized their Democratic base and attracted the support of many swing voters.
On the Senate side, State Rep. Suzanne Williams’ defeated an incumbent, proving once again that she and her agenda generate strong support from Democrats, Republicans and independents. State Sen.-elect Bob Bacon’s prior service in the State House, along with his political skills, helped defeat a popular moderate Fort Collins’ mayor. State Sen.-elect Brandon Shaffer is a promising newcomer who bested a moderate Republican who had held state and local office. All three decisively won their races by double digits.
In the House, three of the four “incumbent-defeaters” - State Reps.-elect Gwyn Green, Debbie Benefield, and Jim Riesberg - were experienced campaigners who had run for political office before. State Rep.-elect Judy Solano’s civic involvement and common-sense solutions made the difference in her race.
State-Reps.-elect Bernie Buescher, Kathleen Curry and Wes McKinley are all strong community leaders who won open Republican seats. Buescher is a respected businessman who served in former Governor Romer’s cabinet. Curry has been highly visible for years on an issue that matters to Western Slope voters - water. McKinley is a popular figure and small businessman in Southeast Colorado who almost defeated the GOP incumbent in 2002. State-Reps.-elect Morgan Carroll, Nancy Todd and Rafael Gallegos won their races handily, keeping open Democratic seats in Arapahoe County and southern Colorado.
Legislative Democrats were able to outspend Republicans 3-to-2, according to incoming House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. The effort got a big financial boost from four civic leaders - Rutt Bridges, Tim Gill, Jared Polis and Pat Stryker - frustrated with the state legislature’s chronic inability to solve Colorado’s growing problems.
The challenge for our party now is very clear. We must deliver on increased opportunity for all, more accessible health care, a healthier cultural climate, strengthening families, making Colorado the safest state in the nation, and protecting the state’s land, water and air.
Democrats must remember that we are still the minority party in Colorado, evidenced by voter registration rolls and that Republican legislative candidates received slightly more total votes. To solidify our new legislative majority, our party must surprise the public and convince them that we are better than they thought.
That means that going on the offensive and being the party of change, not government or defending the status quo. Solving problems will require strong leadership that is willing to implement a wide range of reforms, including fixing the state’s constitutional fiscal straitjackets, modernizing the tax system, investing in the skills and ingenuity of people, and making government work better, to name just a few.
The voters have entrusted us to lead. Democrats should take that awesome responsibility and make Colorado a better place to live and work. Succeeding at that incredibly important mission will ensure that this legislative majority was the start of a long-term trend.