Colorado Needs A New Choice
In the aftermath of the election earlier this month, the political pollsters, pundits and spinmeisters are asserting that Colorado Democrats can no longer win statewide races. They say an increasing Republican voter registration advantage - largely generated by the growth of the radical right and new, higher-income people - make it electorally impossible for Democrats. Hang on, the pundits emphasize, Colorado is swinging to the right.
Fortunately for Democrats, there is one major flaw in this conventional wisdom - IT IS FLAT OUT WRONG! In fact, exit polls indicate that the share of voters identifying themselves as conservative actually dropped to about one-third. Democrats actually gained an 11-percentage point advantage among moderates (who made up about one-half of the total vote) and achieved their largest gains among voters earning more than $75,000 a year.
The results from the lower-profile statewide campaigns - Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Treasurer - also dispute the theory of Republican domination. Since voters often do not know the candidates for these offices very well, the spinmeisters would conclude that party affiliation would be a major factor in trouncing Democrats. In fact, the actual average percentage advantage for Republican candidates in these races was not even three percent.
The pundits also have a hard time explaining why the Republican tide did not sweep the state legislature, another source of low-visibility campaigns. From a traditionally partisan point of view, Democrats held the line in the Senate and actually picked up a seat in the House.
The so-called political experts misread elections because they see politics through a very biased and outdated prism - liberal vs. conservative, Democrat Vs Republican, etc. Meanwhile, voters make their decisions in a much more pragmatic, nonpartisan and non-ideological manner.
When actually asked for their opinions (which a Colorado DLC poll did this summer), voters tell a much different story than the political “chattering class.” Seventy-four percent believe the best solutions to Colorado's problems come from the center. Sixty percent refuse to identify themselves as either strong Democrats or strong Republicans.
Far from rejecting activist government, almost two-thirds of the voters believe the public sector should help people equip themselves to solve their own problems. Small numbers say the role of government is to stay out of our lives and let us solve our own problems.
The razor-thin margin in the Lt. Gov. Gail Schoettler-State Treasurer Bill Owens gubernatorial race also reflects the electorate's pragmatic and centrist views. While voters themselves are non-ideological, they - especially the unaffiliated - have specific concerns about Democrats.
Democratic candidates, especially those running for executive office, must shakeup the debate by offering New Democrat ideas on the “ tough governing” issues - economic opportunity, fiscal discipline, crime, welfare, and streamlined government. Once that threshold of credibility is reached, we can then maximize our traditional advantages on the “compassion” issues - education, health care and the environment. As demonstrated across the country, a New Democrat message on these two fronts rallies both the base and more independently-minded voters.
Schoettler did as well as she did for two major reasons - she effectively portrayed Owens as a right-wing extremist out of touch with mainstream values and ran on a centrist set of non-controversial education, health care and environmental initiatives. Those themes, combined with good economic times, made Owens the riskier choice in a content political environment. However, this agenda, which de-emphasized the “tough governing” issues, only gave Schoettler a slight edge among unaffiliated voters - not quite enough to put her over the top.
Future Democratic gubernatorial candidates should advocate crime-fighting initiatives like community policing (putting more patrolmen on the beat), placing prosecutors and probation officers in neighborhoods and constant more vigorous checking of parolees for drug or alcohol abuse. They should be proposing radical reforms to streamline state government, making it more responsive to those it serves and more accountable to taxpayers. Specific economic initiatives could include revamping the state and local tax systems to make them more economically rational and fiscally responsible. Summarizing these specific proposals into a values-based message understandable to voters unifies the interests of the middle class and those less fortunate rank-and-file Democrats.
Those pundits, who doubt the merits of the New Democrat formula, need to look no further than Loveland. After defeating an incumbent in 1994 (a very tough Democratic year), State Sen. Stan Matsunaka ran again as a different kind of Democrat in a Senate district that has the most Republicans of any in the state.
The advocates of conventional wisdom say that Democrats cannot win statewide with GOP and Democratic registration at 36% and 31%, respectively - a five percent deficit is simply too much to overcome. If that is true, how did Matsunaka prevail in a heavily-targeted GOP district, that is 43% Republican and 23% Democratic - a 20 percent registration disadvantage?
In addition, a candidate actually dropped out of the state Senate Republican nomination race, avoiding a divisive primary and actually becoming the campaign manager for Matsunaka's opponent. Arguably, the GOP was more unified within this district than it was on a statewide basis.
Matsunaka pulled out a close victory because he ran on a New Democrat message that emphasized "better government," not necessarily bigger or smaller government. In addition to advocating tough educational standards with teeth, he focused on giving local districts more incentives and tools to meet those goals.
Much of the Senator's message also centered around character education - teaching civic virtues like courage, respect, responsibility, compassion and integrity. That had the dual effect of sending voters a strong message about Matsunaka's own values, as well as his views on education.
Rather than being unjustifiably discouraged by the conventional wisdom, Democrats should remember that Colorado voters continue to reject the ideological extremes of both traditional liberals and conservatives. A strong majority in this state is increasingly tired of an old left-right debate that is more focused on rehashing the past, rather than building the future.
Those realities should lift the hopes of our party. But even more important than that, Democrats have a duty and responsibility to redefine progressivism in the Information Age and offer a new, real political choice to all Coloradans.
Jim Gibson is president of the Colorado Democratic Leadership Council, a think tank that advocates new public policy ideas and the Democratic Party's historic commitment to economic growth, personal responsibility, community, individual liberty and equal opportunity.