In July 1998, the Colorado Democratic Leadership Council commissioned a statewide poll of 806 registered voters (including an over sampling of registered Democrats) to map and analyze the political landscape of the state. This poll shows that Colorado voters are overwhelmingly centrist, mainstream and pragmatic in their political choices. Seventy-four percent of all voters, including 79% of Democrats and of unaffiliated voters, believe the best solutions to Colorado's challenges will come from the political center.
The majority of Colorado voters, and a majority of each party's voters, rejects the ideological extremes of both major parties. For example, only 11.3% of Democrats consider themselves to be very liberal. Most importantly, more than 40% of unaffiliated voters consider themselves moderate (neither liberal nor conservative) and fully 80% of unaffiliated voters consider themselves neither very liberal nor very conservative.
Currently there are 2,526,000 registered voters in Colorado of which 35.3% are Republican, 30.4% Democratic, and 34.1% unaffiliated. Thus, Democratic candidates start against a potential 123,000 vote deficit in any statewide race. The Democratic Party must close this gap by embracing the mainstream philosophy, policies, and practices that most Colorado voters want.
Another significant result from this poll is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, income levels do not significantly influence a voter's choice of party affiliation or political philosophy (liberal vs. conservative). The poll sorted respondents into six annual household income groups: less than $20,000; $20,000 - $35,000; $35,000 - $50,000; $50,000 - $75,000; $75,000 - $100,000; and more than $100,000. Neither political party had a majority of registered voters in any of these income groups, and the percentage of respondents choosing a conservative or liberal ideological identification did not vary substantially across income levels.
The Norwest Public Opinion Research Program of the Graduate School of Public Affairs conducted this telephone survey at the University of Colorado at Denver.
Seeking a New Choice
By significant majorities, Colorado rank-and-file Democrats, unaffiliated voters and members of the middle class, (defined as those from households earning between $20,000 and $100,000 annually) along with many moderate Republicans, want a new choice in politics. They are increasingly tired of an old left-right debate that is more focused on rehashing the past, rather than building the future.
In contrast to the agendas of narrow special interests, ossified bureaucracies and outdated ideologies, the electorate wants pragmatic solutions to the issues we face today. In other words, they are desperately seeking a “Third Way.”
Party labels and old left-right ideologies mean very little to most Democratic and other Colorado registered voters. Sixty percent refuse to identify themselves as either strong Democrats or strong Republicans. Disliking the extremes in both parties, most Democrats and the middle class want a new message and agenda rooted in mainstream values.
Building the New Coalition
Colorado Democrats can build a new progressive majority coalition by embracing the New Democrat philosophy of opportunity, responsibility, community and reinventing the public sector. In addition to attracting significant numbers of unaffiliated voters, such a message actually unifies the interests of the middle class and those less fortunate rank-and-file Democrats. In fact, advocating traditional liberalism significantly splinters Democrats and is certain to chase away middle class and unaffiliated voters.
A majority of rank-and-file Colorado Democrats and over two-thirds of the middle class describe themselves as either moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative. Over 75 percent of both voter groups believe solutions to Colorado's problems lie in the center.
By almost a two to one margin, Democrats and the middle class believe that the role of the public sector is to help people equip themselves to solve their own problems. Only small numbers believe in a FDR New Deal-style government that protects people from adversity or in a libertarian one that merely stays out of our lives.
Consistent with the value that the public sector should only help those who help themselves, over 85 percent of both Democrats and the middle class say more programs should require that people, who get a government benefit, give something back to society. On the economic role of government, over 86 percent pick increasing opportunities for everyone, rather than old income redistributionist policies.
Getting from Here to There
The priorities of Democratic, unaffiliated and middle class voters are focusing on traditionally “Republican issues.” Crime (approximately 70 percent), high taxes and government spending (at least 58 percent) and family values (at least 57 percent) are mentioned as major concerns.
State legislative Republicans are perceived by the middle class and the unaffiliated as being better on “cutting taxes for people like me” and fighting crime. In addition, those same groups - along with a plurality of Democrats - rank the GOP higher on improving the economy and encouraging high moral standards.
Interestingly, both parties are in a statistical dead heat over which is more “in touch with my values.” Thus, Colorado Democrats have an opportunity to neutralize these significant disadvantages by emphasizing sound economics, fiscal accountability, being tough on crime, personal responsibility and other mainstream values.
Democrats must earn their fiscal spurs by rigorous evaluation, reinvention, or elimination of outdated programs. Specific economic initiatives should include revamping the state and local tax systems to make them more economically and fiscally rational.
To fight crime, Democrats should link state financial and technical assistance to localities that are expanding community policing (putting more patrolmen on the beat), along with placing prosecutors and probation officers in neighborhoods. The state can take another “bite out of crime” through constant more vigorous checking of parolees for drug or alcohol abuse. Finally, Democrats should advocate creating “restorative justice” systems that confront criminals with the damage they do to their victims, force them to take personal responsibility for their actions and push them to make retribution.
If Democrats demonstrate credibility on these economic, fiscal and public safety challenges, they can then move to issues where they have traditionally enjoyed advantages. In fact, state legislative Democrats today get great marks from their own base, the middle class and unaffiliated voters on a number of values and policy fronts. Strong pluralities of all three groups pick Democrats over Republicans on caring about them, advocating children's interests, helping working families, creating opportunities for everyone and protecting senior citizens.
While Democrats have historically been and still are rated better on education, that edge may be tenuous. With huge majorities of the middle class, Democratic and unaffiliated voters citing quality schools as a major concern, almost half are giving their local public schools a grade of C or less.
Democrats can truly reform education, while protecting and building on that political lead, by giving state educational standards real teeth. All students should be required to pass rigorous tests before being promoted to the next grade or graduating.
Additionally, parents and students should be given more choices with public charter school districts. Under this proposal, local school boards would stop running schools directly and instead hire independent contractors to provide educational services.
Broadening the Base
A significant number of voters, across the political spectrum, cites affordable, high-quality health care (77 percent) and managing growth effectively (62 percent) as major concerns. Large majorities also believe Colorado needs better transportation systems.
While voters usually give Democrats an edge on these policy debates, they have little faith in either party. For example, unaffiliated voters reported the following:
Issue
|
Democrats
|
Republicans
|
Neither
|
“Makes the health care system work better for me”
|
29%
|
20%
|
44%
|
“Deal effectively with Colorado's rapid growth”
|
13%
|
13%
|
57%
|
“Deal effectively with traffic/ transportation problems”
|
20%
|
5%
|
56%
|
Democrats have an opportunity to significantly broaden their base if they communicate effective messages, backed by serious policy proposals, that address these problems in a commonsensical, economically sensitive and cost-effective manner. “Getting ahead of the curve” on these issues, will be key to building a durable progressive majority coalition for the foreseeable future.
Challenges
Of course, the Democratic Party also faces significant challenges. Over the long-term, it must move beyond the narrow concerns of some traditional constituency groups with new messages and policy initiatives that put the debate back on progressive terms.
For example, almost half of unaffiliated voters, along with a strong plurality of Republicans and the middle class, see Democrats as the ones who work to ease racial tensions. At the same time, three-fifths of unaffiliated and middle class voters - along with almost half of Colorado Democrats - agree that “affirmative action programs are no longer necessary and are a form of reverse discrimination.”
To resolve this serious fracture, Democrats must build on their credibility with racial issues and lead a broader debate on equal opportunity. They should call for an end to the gridlock caused by traditional liberals who defend the status quo and conservatives who merely seek to divide and conquer.
Specifically, Democrats must start to discuss phasing out mandatory preferences in government while reinforcing voluntary affirmative action by private employers. In college admissions, they should look at basing affirmative action on need as well as race.
Finally, Democrats should evaluate replacing government preferences with new policies that empower poor individuals and communities. Some examples include individual development accounts to help the poor build assets, promoting home ownership and stimulating community-based organizations working in inner cities.
On another challenging front, almost half of Democrats, a majority of the middle class, and two-thirds of unaffiliated voters agree with this rather strong statement - “labor unions have outlived their usefulness.” At the same time, almost 90 percent of Colorado rank-and-file Democrats favor free trade - an issue on which unions have specifically taken a strong and opposing position.
The Colorado labor movement must recognize that workers in both the private and public sectors face new realities and challenges. An editorial in the March/April 1998 edition of the Democratic Leadership Council's magazine - The New Democrat - said it best:
With notable exceptions - some of which are highlighted in this issue - the US labor movement has failed to respond effectively to these economic changes. Instead, many union leaders have hunkered down, hoping to stop or stem the restructuring of our economy and the modernization of our public institutions. This is why union leaders resist deeper integration in global markets, even at the cost of denying all Americans the economic benefits of open and expanding trade. This is why they cling to a nostalgic view of union militancy, even as the New Economy redefines economic security in terms of empowering individuals to hone their skills, collaborate in flexible workplaces, and control health and pensions and other key resources.
Democrats should advocate a strategy that rejects the left's dependence on ineffective bureaucracies and the right's indifference to the struggles of working Coloradans. To help ensure that everyone benefits in the New Economy, this new social compact with workers should include:
Regional skill alliances (RSAs) as a way to bring new jobs and new workers together. Through RSAs, employers, public agencies, schools and labor unions can pool their resources to train workers for statewide emerging job opportunities.Skill grants that workers can use at both public and private job training service providers.Conclusion
Colorado Democrats can clearly build a majority coalition around this new “Third Way” while maintaining their traditional progressive principles. It is imperative to continue pushing for enduring values like equal opportunity, cultural tolerance, an active public sector, a sense of community and a special commitment to those less fortunate Coloradans.
However, in this new era, Democrats must rethink how to apply these important principles. Party leaders must radically change the means to achieve these ends just like progressives did at other great turning points in our history like the Industrial Revolution, the Great Depression and the Civil Rights Movement.
The Democratic Party can, once again, become the party of progressive reform. To do so, Democrats must recognize that their fundamental mission is to expand opportunity, not government. Economic growth in the private sector is the prerequisite to expanding opportunity for everyone.
The correct way to rebuild economic security is to invest in the skills and ingenuity of our people; to expand trade, not restrict it; and to give every Coloradan who works hard the chance to get ahead. Outdated and ineffective policies should not be kept to merely favor those who already have it made.
Citizenship entails responsibilities as well as rights. True patriotism is citizens giving something back to their communities and state, not just flag-waving. A call for reciprocal responsibility is in direct contrast with entitlement-driven politics, as well as the neglectful right-wing mentality of "every man for himself."
Democrats must ask all citizens to choose public responsibilities and put the common good ahead of self-interest. Pulling this state together - not dividing and conquering the electorate by income, race or region - should be our highest priority.
Finally, to restore confidence in the institution of government, Democrats must take the lead in reinventing our public-sector systems. That goal requires radical reform so that government is more responsive to those it serves and more accountable to those taxpayers who pay the bills. Non-bureaucratic approaches to governing, eliminating unneeded layers of bureaucracy and giving citizens more choices in public services should be emphasized.
While challenging traditional liberals, this new Third Way also creates a healthier public debate because it competes more effectively with the right. For decades, conservatives have succeeded politically, simply by running against big government and cultural extremism. If Colorado Democrats are successful at moving beyond that outmoded view of the world, conservatives will be forced to develop a more a positive governing agenda.
All of that can only be good for Colorado.